The ACHA rankings have been released, and your Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University Eagles come in at number 20 in the South Division. The rankings are based off of wins, spread, and strength of schedule (SOS). The ranking system is very similar to the NCAA’s College Football Playoff Rankings for Division I football. The same system is used to come up with those rankings, the only difference is they have a ten person committee to pick the playoff teams, and the ACHA uses strictly computer generated algorithms to come up with the playoff teams. NCAA Division I football used to strictly use computer rankings, in the old BCS Bowl system, but has since strayed from that and included the human eye test to grade teams, hence the human panel.

Before we continue, let’s break down the terminology the ACHA uses in grading teams. Wins is an easy one, the number of games a team has won. Spread is the gap in scoring, in a win or loss. For example, if the Eagles beat a team 7-0, the spread would be 7 in their favor. Strength of Schedule refers to how hard the games a team plays are on a national level. For example, if the Eagles play the University of Tampa, a national contender, their strength of schedule goes up. On the other hand, if the Eagles play a team that is not ranked at all, their strength of schedule goes down. Strength of schedule is usually graded like an assignment, on an A+ to F scale. It can also be assessed in terms of statistics compared to other teams in a division or league on a number scale. Quality win refers to when a team beats a team that is ranked above them in the rankings. Rather, a quality loss refers to when a team loses to a team ranked above them in the rankings. Both a quality win and a quality loss help teams in the ACHA rankings, due to strength of schedule, and if the losing team keeps it close, it helps their spread as well.

Now that we are speaking the same language, let’s break down how the Eagles came in at number 20 out of 32 teams in the first rankings of the season. We will start with wins. The Eagles have 7 wins, and 6 losses. Their wins have come against the Florida Institute of Technology (2), Flagler College (2), Lynn University (2), and Middle Tennessee State University. Their losses have come to University of Tampa (2), Auburn University, Florida State University, and Florida Atlantic University (2). One good news for the Eagles, all of their losses have helped their ranking, as they are all quality losses. That’s right, the Eagles have not lost a game to a team ranked lower than them all season. The Eagles are good at getting the job done when they are expected to win, and if they can play upset on some teams above them, they would be a contender for a top ten ranking. 

Upon viewing the overall rankings, one would notice teams with better records are behind the Eagles in the rankings, and teams with worse records are in front of the Eagles. Well, this is where the strength of schedule comes into play. A team, such as University of Miami, can have a losing record and be higher in the rankings, 15th, due to playing consistently better teams. The University of Miami Hurricanes are in the same division as the University of Tampa and Florida Atlantic University, which is a highly competitive division. The Hurricanes sit at 2 wins and 8 losses, but because they play some of the best teams in the South Division, they are favored in the rankings. If the Eagles can pull off a win against a team anywhere above them in the rankings, they are likely to make a big jump due to having a winning record and adding a quality win. Out of the Eagles 7 wins, only 3 of those wins helped their ranking. The first two, against FIT, helped them as FIT is ranked, but ranked 32 so significantly below the Eagles. The win against MTSU would help as well, as MTSU is ranked 28, but once again not a lot as they are below the Eagles. Flagler and Lynn are not ranked at all, thus winning those games did not help the Eagles move up in the polls.

Spread is the final characteristic of a team to look at, and it’s all about the numbers. First, it’s important to note, the highest spread a team can achieve is 7. So, if the Eagles win 7-0, 10-0, and 8-1, all games will give them the same amount of spread in their favor, 7. I calculated the spread for the Eagles, as well as the University of Tampa. The Eagles spread is 25 in their favor, and the University of Tampa’s spread is 1 in their favor. The explanation for the Eagles having that much higher of a spread? They have maxed out, earning 7 spread points in their favor, three times on the season. Unfortunately, the Eagles achieved this against Flagler, which did not affect their rankings, and FIT, only slightly helping them.

As you can see, the three factors overlap heavily. A team can have a very high spread and a winning record, but have a weaker strength of schedule thus limiting their ceiling. This is the case for the Eagles at the moment. They look for a win against a team ranked above them, to achieve a bump in the rankings. When a team wins a game against a team ranked higher than them, they tend to move up in the rankings at a steady rate until they lose again. This boasts well for the Eagles, as if they would win against a team ranked above them, they would make a jump, followed by playing some conference rivals to hopefully get more wins as they face-off against those teams throughout the season, before playing more high ranked teams to keep them locked into their ranking or move up further at the end of the year. The situation I described is the exact situation that is in front of the Eagles, as the University of Florida Gators travel from their cozy swamp in Gainesville, Florida to play the Eagles on Friday night.

The Florida Gators are a tough team, as they lost to the University of Tampa by only two goals. Another team did that recently though, and that team was the Embry-Riddle Eagles. The Eagles will come into Friday night with a record of 7-6. They score on average 5 goals a game, and allow on average, 3 goals a game. The Gators come into the matchup with a record of 6 wins and 3 losses. They score, on average, 6 goals a game, and allow, on average, 5 goals a game. Their spread is 6 goals in their favor, compared to the Eagles having a spread of 25 goals in their favor. Both the Eagles and the Gators lost to the University of Tampa by six goals in their first meetings, and by two goals in their most recent meetings. The Eagles lost to Auburn, while the Gators beat Auburn. A significant digit to focus on for Friday’s matchup is 5. The Eagles score 5 goals per game, while the Gators allow 5 goals per game. If the Eagles can score that many, they should be able to pull out a victory, but anything below that starts favoring the Gators, as every game the Gators have held their opponent to less than 5 goals, they have won.

The Gators, also are ranked above the Eagles. The Gators come in at number 11 on the ACHA rankings. That’s a nine spot gap between the teams, but the Eagles are no stranger to playing higher ranked opponents. The University of Tampa came in at number 6, and Florida State University came in at number 9. A win for the Eagles could mean a jump into the top 15, while a loss doesn’t bode well for their aspirations of making regionals. A lot is on the line in Friday night’s game against the Gators. The Eagles will look to their fans, whether at home or in the Daytona Ice Arena, to give them home-ice advantage.

The Gators have everything to lose Friday night, while the Eagles have everything to gain. The Eagles haven’t played spoiler to anybody’s season yet, but the team seems poised to Friday night. After close losses to Tampa and FAU, the Eagles are one goal, one save, one play, one shot away from taking the next step, and the team that stands in the Eagles’ way of making that step will be in their house Friday night.

-Nick Conrad